P-ISSN 2587-2400 | E-ISSN 2587-196X
EJMO. 2020; 4(2): 149-159 | DOI: 10.14744/ejmo.2020.60998

Case Fatality Rate estimation of COVID-19 for European Countries: Turkey’s Current Scenario Amidst a Global Pandemic; Comparison of Outbreakswith European Countries

Fadime Oztoprak1, Aadil Javed2
1International Biomedicine and Genome Institute, Dokuz Eylul University, Izmir, Turkey, 2Department of Biotechnology, Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Ege University, Izmir, Turkey

Objectives: SARS-CoV-2 belonging to Coronaviridae family of RNA viruses caused an epidemic in China, which led to a global pandemic of COVID-19. Various international and national authorities around the world have been attempting to halt the spread of the deadly virus by providing awareness about the disease including the daily figures of confirmed cases and mortalities related to the pandemic. At this early stage of this outbreak, healthcare officials and public, require the epidemiological patterns to understand the situation. Case fatality rate is one of the key parameter for epidemiology of an outbreak of this kind. Here, we aimed to compute the CFR for European countries and Turkey until 31st March 2020. Methods: We used linear regression analysis on cumulative number of cases and deaths for constructing a slope for estimating CFR values of COVID-19 in selected countries. We compared the computed CFR values of Turkey until 31st March (15 days since first COVID-19 death) with similar first fifteen days’ data since the report of first death from Italy, Spain, UK, France, Germany, Switzerland, Belgium, Austria, Netherlands and Portugal. Later, we computed CFR values for these countries from their cumulative confirmed cases and cumulative deaths until 31st March. Results: This data driven analysis showed that CFR for Turkey was 1.85 (95% CI: 1.513-2.181) with R2 value of 0.92 which was comparable to fifteen day analysis of France as 1.979 (95% CI: 1.798-2.159) and R2 value of 0.98. However, CFRs for selected countries increased in subsequent analysis when the threshold of fifteen days was released until March 31, 2020. However, the CFR estimates are time dependent and show linear trend in initial stages of the outbreak. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the CFR of COVID-19 in Turkey at initial stages of the outbreak was similar to France. However, SARS-CoV-2 seemed to have spread quicker in Turkey since the report of first death, as compared to other countries based on the number of confirmed cases. This study was aimed at recording an update on the current epidemiological situation of COVID-19 for Turkey in comparison to European countries during a global pandemic. Keywords: COVID-19, epidemiology, public health, SARS-CoV-2, Turkey, virology


Cite This Article

Oztoprak F, Javed A. Case Fatality Rate estimation of COVID-19 for European Countries: Turkey’s Current Scenario Amidst a Global Pandemic; Comparison of Outbreakswith European Countries. EJMO. 2020; 4(2): 149-159

Corresponding Author: Aadil Javed

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