P-ISSN 2587-2400 | E-ISSN 2587-196X
EJMO. 2020; 4(2): 160-165 | DOI: 10.14744/ejmo.2020.28273

Modeling and Forecasting for the number of cases of the COVID-19 pandemic with the Curve Estimation Models, the Box-Jenkins and Exponential Smoothing Methods

Harun Yonar1, Aynur Yonar2, Mustafa Agah Tekindal1, Melike Tekindal3
1Deparment of Biostatistics, Selçuk University, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Konya, Turkey, 2Deparment of Statistics, Selçuk University, Faculty of Science, Konya, Turkey, 3Department of Social Work, Izmir Katip Çelebi Universty, Faculty of Health Sciences, Izmir, Turkey

Since late December 2019, an outbreak of a novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was reported in Wuhan, China, and it has subsequently spread to almost all countries in the world in a short time. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the rapidly spreading coronavirus outbreak as a pandemic. In general, the COVID-19 pandemic is an acute resolved disease but it can also be deadly. The aim of this study is to estimate and forecast the number of COVID-19 epidemic cases of the selected countries of G-8 countries, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy, Russian, Canada, Japan, and Turkey with the data between 1/22/2020 and 3/22/2020 by using the curve estimation models, Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) and Brown/Holt linear exponential smoothing methods. The models are evaluated and installed separately for each country since the start date of the epidemic varies in the considered countries. The estimates are made up to 04/05/2020 and they show how the course of the epidemic will be in the coming days, taking into account the current case increase rates. This article can be very useful for giving communities and government an idea of how quickly this epidemic is progressing and informing them so that they can take the necessary precautions. Keywords: Box-Jenkins, COVID-19 SARS-CoV2, exponential smoothing methods


Cite This Article

Yonar H, Yonar A, Tekindal M, Tekindal M. Modeling and Forecasting for the number of cases of the COVID-19 pandemic with the Curve Estimation Models, the Box-Jenkins and Exponential Smoothing Methods. EJMO. 2020; 4(2): 160-165

Corresponding Author: Harun Yonar

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